Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2014 10:32:02 GMT -5
** ALERT *** ABOUT PART -- THE 2ND ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING IN CENTRAL & EASTERN VA and MD
..... DONT BE CAUGHT WATCHING THE PAINT DRY
If you have been following my forecast for the past two days you know that I've been talking about this event in three parts. The first portion is the snow which hit North Carolina really yesterday and into this morning and is hitting all of Virginia now (except for the southeast).
PART 2 is the change over to sleet and freezing rain which has already occurred across all of central North Carolina is beginning to occur over interior Eastern Virginia and will pick up speed during the overnight hours into Thursday morning across the eastern half of Virginia.
PART 3 ... Is the second round of snow which occurs as the COMMA HEAD snow or DEFORMATION zone SNOW begins to move from the Shenandoah Valley and the Piedmont back to the east towards Washington, DC Fredericksburg and Richmond on Thursday afternoon . Let me show you what I mean. The images here which I'm going to show you are from the high resolution 4 KM NAM model but the same sort of data and radar signatures are being indicated on many many other models that focus on the short range.
Starting around noon the cold air will begin to return and temperatures will begin to drop . In this FIRST MAP e can see what the radar is probably going to look like 12:00 PM. Notice that over much of Southeast Maryland and eastern and Central Virginia not much is going on but over the Shenandoah Valley and western Piedmont is still snowing quite nicely .
However 3 hours AT 3PM THURSDAY .. the MIDDLE MAP ... the radar begins to rapidly intensified as the COMMAHEAD snow moves back into Central Virginia. Can see the radar reflectivity is greatly increased which means moderate to heavy snow was possible stretching from Washington, DC down to Richmond and through Farmville Charlottesville Fredericksburg etc . Some of the snow will even begin to move back into the northern neck and the western portions of the Middle peninsula.
In the third MAP ... Which is now 6 hours later or 9:00 PM the COMMAHEAD snow or the deformation zone is really pounding the hell out of central and Eastern Virginia from interstate 95.... From Washington and Baltimore all way down to Richmond and east into the Middle Peninsula and into the northern neck and extending up into southeastern Pennsylvania.
How much extra snow can we expect? While typically this sort of second round of snow is usually not a big deal this is becoming a very powerful nor'easter so we may be looking at something special. Right now I would go for ANOTHER 1 to 3 inches of snow but I could easily see this turning out to be something like 2 to 4 or maybe 3 6 inches of snow for some areas. Also keep in mind that the ground is very cold will have lots of sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow so the sector out of snow should accumulate very quickly.
One final Point I have not seen any of the 11:00 broadcasts in central northern or Western Virginia so I do not know IF they are talking about this second round of snow OR to what degree the emphasizing it.
..... DONT BE CAUGHT WATCHING THE PAINT DRY
If you have been following my forecast for the past two days you know that I've been talking about this event in three parts. The first portion is the snow which hit North Carolina really yesterday and into this morning and is hitting all of Virginia now (except for the southeast).
PART 2 is the change over to sleet and freezing rain which has already occurred across all of central North Carolina is beginning to occur over interior Eastern Virginia and will pick up speed during the overnight hours into Thursday morning across the eastern half of Virginia.
PART 3 ... Is the second round of snow which occurs as the COMMA HEAD snow or DEFORMATION zone SNOW begins to move from the Shenandoah Valley and the Piedmont back to the east towards Washington, DC Fredericksburg and Richmond on Thursday afternoon . Let me show you what I mean. The images here which I'm going to show you are from the high resolution 4 KM NAM model but the same sort of data and radar signatures are being indicated on many many other models that focus on the short range.
Starting around noon the cold air will begin to return and temperatures will begin to drop . In this FIRST MAP e can see what the radar is probably going to look like 12:00 PM. Notice that over much of Southeast Maryland and eastern and Central Virginia not much is going on but over the Shenandoah Valley and western Piedmont is still snowing quite nicely .
However 3 hours AT 3PM THURSDAY .. the MIDDLE MAP ... the radar begins to rapidly intensified as the COMMAHEAD snow moves back into Central Virginia. Can see the radar reflectivity is greatly increased which means moderate to heavy snow was possible stretching from Washington, DC down to Richmond and through Farmville Charlottesville Fredericksburg etc . Some of the snow will even begin to move back into the northern neck and the western portions of the Middle peninsula.
In the third MAP ... Which is now 6 hours later or 9:00 PM the COMMAHEAD snow or the deformation zone is really pounding the hell out of central and Eastern Virginia from interstate 95.... From Washington and Baltimore all way down to Richmond and east into the Middle Peninsula and into the northern neck and extending up into southeastern Pennsylvania.
How much extra snow can we expect? While typically this sort of second round of snow is usually not a big deal this is becoming a very powerful nor'easter so we may be looking at something special. Right now I would go for ANOTHER 1 to 3 inches of snow but I could easily see this turning out to be something like 2 to 4 or maybe 3 6 inches of snow for some areas. Also keep in mind that the ground is very cold will have lots of sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow so the sector out of snow should accumulate very quickly.
One final Point I have not seen any of the 11:00 broadcasts in central northern or Western Virginia so I do not know IF they are talking about this second round of snow OR to what degree the emphasizing it.
