Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2014 23:04:53 GMT -5
** ABOUT MARCH 6-7 POSSIBLE BIG SNOWSTORM SC NC VA ***
February 28, 2014 at 7:23pm
***ABOUT THE MARCH 6-7 EVENT... POSSIBLE BIG SNOWSTORM FOR SC NC BA
***
EURO SNOW ALGORITHM OVER DOING THE SNOW FALL
For the last several days the European model and the European ensemble mean had been showing the potential for significant East Coast snowstorm for the areas from Maryland into Virginia North Carolina western or interior South Carolina and even into perhaps North East Georgia. This event if it happens will be March 6 - 7.
I have a great deal skepticism t about this system for couple of different reasons. In fact there is a scenario where chain of events could unfold which will ensure that heavy snow once again hammers the Carolinas ... and once again totally or partially misses /Central VA & Richmond in one of the great screw jobs of all time .
(Actually this trend of NC getting big snows but Richmond missing out ... has been a trend that has been going on for 15 years which is one of the reasons why the seasonal snow totals Richmond have fallen so sharply. Since 2000 there been 8 winter storms where the Hampton roads area has received substantially more snow--- 6" or more -- than the Richmond metro area. But I digress...)
Certainly if we take the model data verbatim-- that is to say EXACTLY as the model appears and ASSUME that the model data of FEB 28 is exactly correct representation of what things will look like on March 6 ... THEN there could be major snowstorm for northwest SC western NC southwest .. southern central and central VA. And the truth is that the European model has been showing this for the last few runs... so there is some consistency here.
Take a look at the FRIDAY afternoon European model. This first image shows the European model valid March 6 at 7:00 AM and 7AM MARCH 7. We can see the LOW close to the FL panhandle and a enormous arctic HIGH centered very close to Montreal or Messina NY. At this Point the European model says it will be snowing as far north as Richmond and Roanoke Virginia. Notice WHERE the WHITE LINE is... in central North Carolina. Certainly the western portions of North Carolina could be getting a big snow. However with the LOW still in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico ..the precipitation is only going to push so far to the north until runs into dry air from the HIGH to the North .
At 7AM MARCH 7 the LOW is an ideal position to give Richmond and Central Virginia a major snowstorm. BUT notice the position of the HIGH.... off the coast of Maine! The interaction between the HIGH and the Low on the SC coast produces a strong EAST wind which ends up bringing in mild ocean temperatures and precipitation goes over all rain . Notice how the light green colors have now pushed into Central Virginia.
This could lead to a scenario where Central Virginia/ Richmond gets screwed out of the " big " snow -again --for the third time this winter. For example It is possible that the LOW in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico may bring enough moisture into the western Carolinas which will be cold enough on Thursday morning so that significant snow falls there. But the snow may not reach Richmond until later in the day or night because that city / area is just out of the range of the Low. By the time the low pressure areas are finally moves up the coast and brings the heavy precipitation into Central Virginia... the low level cold air has been blasted out by east winds and it is now too warm for snow.
This leads to another point about the European model. As many have noted the Europoean model snowfall forecast maps on these different weather companies such as MDA/EARTHSAT .... STORMVITSA ... and WXBELL ... has a strong tendency to run too high because the model counts SLEET and FREEZING RAIN as SNOW. This calculation by the European model ends up resulting in very high snow totals a specially on the eastern side or southern side of snow precipitation because the model "sees" any mixing as all snow .
However there is a weather company out there which has done something different with the European snow algorithim which seems to fix the problem in a very significant way. The folks that runs EUROWX.COM.... a company called to CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT out of Massachusetts.... has change the Europoean snow algorithim so that it now runs off the KUCHERA snow algorithim.
This is a snow calculation method has developed by professor KUCHERA many years ago which appears to be a much more accurate that enables weather models to come up with a much better snow forecast .
This image shows you the difference quite clearly. Both of these maps are showing the snowfall forecasts from the Friday afternoon European model valid through day 8 which takes as into March 8. The map on the left hand side is from MDA EARTH SAT and as you can see it clearly has a huge area of 12 to 18 inches of snow over northwestern SC... western half of NC up to the VA/NC border. It's very impressive looking isnt it? A number of weather forms and weenies have posted this Europoean snow map.
Again the problem is that the model is counting sleet and freezing rain as all snow. When you take the same European model and you insert the KUCHERA snow algorithim you end up getting a substantially different looking snow forecast... One which looks like thisI suggest that the snow map makes a lot more sense appears to be a lot more reasonable if for what's going to happen in the Carolinas on March 6 with this coastal low. It is not going to be a huge 12 to 18 snowstorm.... Instead it will be a little bit of slet that change sover sleet then rain
This guy makes really good long range forecasts..
Wxrisk.com
This is his forecast, I just cut and pasted..
February 28, 2014 at 7:23pm
***ABOUT THE MARCH 6-7 EVENT... POSSIBLE BIG SNOWSTORM FOR SC NC BA
***EURO SNOW ALGORITHM OVER DOING THE SNOW FALL
For the last several days the European model and the European ensemble mean had been showing the potential for significant East Coast snowstorm for the areas from Maryland into Virginia North Carolina western or interior South Carolina and even into perhaps North East Georgia. This event if it happens will be March 6 - 7.
I have a great deal skepticism t about this system for couple of different reasons. In fact there is a scenario where chain of events could unfold which will ensure that heavy snow once again hammers the Carolinas ... and once again totally or partially misses /Central VA & Richmond in one of the great screw jobs of all time .
(Actually this trend of NC getting big snows but Richmond missing out ... has been a trend that has been going on for 15 years which is one of the reasons why the seasonal snow totals Richmond have fallen so sharply. Since 2000 there been 8 winter storms where the Hampton roads area has received substantially more snow--- 6" or more -- than the Richmond metro area. But I digress...)
Certainly if we take the model data verbatim-- that is to say EXACTLY as the model appears and ASSUME that the model data of FEB 28 is exactly correct representation of what things will look like on March 6 ... THEN there could be major snowstorm for northwest SC western NC southwest .. southern central and central VA. And the truth is that the European model has been showing this for the last few runs... so there is some consistency here.
Take a look at the FRIDAY afternoon European model. This first image shows the European model valid March 6 at 7:00 AM and 7AM MARCH 7. We can see the LOW close to the FL panhandle and a enormous arctic HIGH centered very close to Montreal or Messina NY. At this Point the European model says it will be snowing as far north as Richmond and Roanoke Virginia. Notice WHERE the WHITE LINE is... in central North Carolina. Certainly the western portions of North Carolina could be getting a big snow. However with the LOW still in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico ..the precipitation is only going to push so far to the north until runs into dry air from the HIGH to the North .
At 7AM MARCH 7 the LOW is an ideal position to give Richmond and Central Virginia a major snowstorm. BUT notice the position of the HIGH.... off the coast of Maine! The interaction between the HIGH and the Low on the SC coast produces a strong EAST wind which ends up bringing in mild ocean temperatures and precipitation goes over all rain . Notice how the light green colors have now pushed into Central Virginia.
This could lead to a scenario where Central Virginia/ Richmond gets screwed out of the " big " snow -again --for the third time this winter. For example It is possible that the LOW in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico may bring enough moisture into the western Carolinas which will be cold enough on Thursday morning so that significant snow falls there. But the snow may not reach Richmond until later in the day or night because that city / area is just out of the range of the Low. By the time the low pressure areas are finally moves up the coast and brings the heavy precipitation into Central Virginia... the low level cold air has been blasted out by east winds and it is now too warm for snow.
This leads to another point about the European model. As many have noted the Europoean model snowfall forecast maps on these different weather companies such as MDA/EARTHSAT .... STORMVITSA ... and WXBELL ... has a strong tendency to run too high because the model counts SLEET and FREEZING RAIN as SNOW. This calculation by the European model ends up resulting in very high snow totals a specially on the eastern side or southern side of snow precipitation because the model "sees" any mixing as all snow .
However there is a weather company out there which has done something different with the European snow algorithim which seems to fix the problem in a very significant way. The folks that runs EUROWX.COM.... a company called to CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT out of Massachusetts.... has change the Europoean snow algorithim so that it now runs off the KUCHERA snow algorithim.
This is a snow calculation method has developed by professor KUCHERA many years ago which appears to be a much more accurate that enables weather models to come up with a much better snow forecast .
This image shows you the difference quite clearly. Both of these maps are showing the snowfall forecasts from the Friday afternoon European model valid through day 8 which takes as into March 8. The map on the left hand side is from MDA EARTH SAT and as you can see it clearly has a huge area of 12 to 18 inches of snow over northwestern SC... western half of NC up to the VA/NC border. It's very impressive looking isnt it? A number of weather forms and weenies have posted this Europoean snow map.
Again the problem is that the model is counting sleet and freezing rain as all snow. When you take the same European model and you insert the KUCHERA snow algorithim you end up getting a substantially different looking snow forecast... One which looks like thisI suggest that the snow map makes a lot more sense appears to be a lot more reasonable if for what's going to happen in the Carolinas on March 6 with this coastal low. It is not going to be a huge 12 to 18 snowstorm.... Instead it will be a little bit of slet that change sover sleet then rain
This guy makes really good long range forecasts..
Wxrisk.com
This is his forecast, I just cut and pasted..
