Possible SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM ..March 25-26

[Deleted]

***ALERT *** 12z WED European Model & 12z Canadian ensemble turn very "BULLISH " on Possible SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM .... MARCH 25 26



There has been a significant change or r increase with respect to the potential for a significant East Coast winter storm next week on March 25-26. In general most of the model guidance has turned Snowier and is showing much more of southern stream or Gulf of Mexico Low (MILLER A) . The implications of this are significant because IF.... IF... this March 24-m Low s a pure southern stream or Gulf of Mexico low ...the odds of seeing a significant late season snowstorm over western central North Carolina ....most of Virginia including the eastern half of Virginia... ...much of central and eastern Maryland & Delaware ..and up into the big cities of the northeast and up into Boston are dramatically increased.



The FIRST image presented is the afternoon or midday European model. As you can see the Model shows ONLY a southern stream system and the cold air or the rain snow line is as far south as Charlotte North Carolina on the morning of March 25. On the map for March 26 I have superimposed the track the Low because I have access to the European in 6 hour time increments. The 12z wed European Model track of this Low is a perfect track with regard to seeing a major snowstorm from Central North Carolina up to Boston.... It could NOT be more ideal or more textbook.



More importantly is that the Low appears to be fairly wet and well organized even in its early stages along the Georgia Coast ... SO.... this would ensure significant moisture and possible significant snow even into Central North Carolina as well as central and Eastern Virginia... Central and Eastern Maryland and into Delaware.



The SECOND image is the high resolution European model broken down into Middle Atlantic region --- from Stormvista. As you can see it's a pretty big system that lasts a fairly long period of time and covers much of western and Central North Carolina and central and Eastern Virginia and Maryland. It's possible that areas and southeastern Virginia and Eastern North Carolina it could see significant snow of this but it's con of laid the season for those areas... SO it COULD more of snow / rain mix.



The third image is the Canadian ensembles and it too is extremely bullish or aggressive with development of this coastal storm. This model also shows a significant if not major East Coast winter storm March 25 - 26

[indyme2]

No more ice or snow! Thank you.

[Deleted]

Mar 20, 2014 5:49:22 GMT -5 indyme2 said:

No more ice or snow! Thank you.

I wish mother nature would listen, if she listened to us we would have nice sunny days pretty much all the time

[cabarrusgold]

Think warm thoughts, James... You went out west last year and it rained the entire time here you were gone. You come back and it stops. Then you leave again and the rain to starts again. So...

[victory]

Good Grief! Coordinating the few days off work that I get with this weather has made for a long winter.

[Deleted]

*** 12z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN going balls to the wall FOR MAJOR/ HISTORIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM MARCH 25-26... ***

it is IDENTICAL to the 00Z EURO ENSEMBLE but this run is tad colder.

The all important and critical 850 mb temperatures continue to support almost all snow through most of VA as well as western and central NC all of MD DEL the eastern third of PA all of NJ NYC southeast NY state including all of NYC/ long Island all of CT RI MASS S southeast NH and Maine.

(for those of you who are not weather geeks one of the parameters meteorologist use in determining the rain snow line is the temperature Line or ISOTHERM at 1 mile above the ground which is the 850 millibar or mb level. At a bare minimum to get snow at the ground .. he temperatures in the clouds at 850 mb must be zero or colder... Ideally -2c or -4c. )

What is particular impressive about the midday Thursday European ensemble is that it shows RICHMOND's 850 ISOTHERM staying at an ideal or textbook -4c for the entire event. In fact the r/s line or the 0 degrees isotherm is actually located over se VA and Eastern NC. Thus it is possible that even the interior portions of southeastern VA a such as Williamsburg and Franklin could see some accumulating snow from this Low... as well as the interior portions of eastern NC such as Elizabeth City Roanoke Rapids & Rocky Mount.

In central and western NC the European ensemble strongly suggest that all of western and Central NC WEST of I- 85 will be all snow.

In VA this is a pretty darn good big event and again be cause it is a Gulf of Mexico lower that is coming up the coast that does not appear to be a major dry slot issue here. We are NOT looking at one area of Low pressure dying out and another one reforming on the coast. the European ensemble mean shwos large areas of 4-8" over western half of NC and almost all of VA MD DEL southeast PA and southern NJ and 8-12" over NYC into CT Long island and BOS. *** again keep in mind that the import thing here is that the snow mounts are again increasing as we are getting closer to the event.**

All that being said again let me emphasize that the heaviest precipitation /snow does NOT fall over the mountains of VA WVA VA western MD central PA or central NY state. These areas see a decent snow according to the model data but not a major event.

Further up the coast Washington, DC to Boston it absolutely crushed with snow. I mean it hammered. The only reason why I am not talking over a foot of snow or more... this point is because of the MARCH sun angle. Voices of the Bulge
timing of this event shows that the best or heaviest precipitation/ snow moves into the DC Baltimore metro areas by sunset the continues during the evening and overnight hours and then a little later into Philly NJ NYC CT se Mass BOS during the overnight hours . If this is correct and I do not know what to be correct but if it is... good googly moogly....

[Deleted]

**UPDATE ON POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM MARCH 25-26**

In general the overall trend on the models during the overnight hours was to shift the system further to the east or further off the coast. This would reduce the effect of the system-- the threat of late seaosn accumulating snow to the immediate coastal areas.... And would mean that the mountain regions of western VA western MD central PA eastern NY northwest CT and Central New England would see little if any significant snowfall.

0z OPERATIONAL GFS -- the Low passes east of Hatteras then GFS turn the Low due NORTH (!!!() where the LOW parallels the coast until it reaches the " benchmark " of 40 N Latitude and 70 degrees west Longitude. The rapidly deepens undergo explosive cyclogenesis as it drops to 966mb. Taken verbatim this model implies heavy rains for Eastern North Carolina and far southeastern Virginia some moderate snow possible for Central North Carolina and central or Eastern Virginia and the Delmarva into Southern New Jersey and Eastern New England

0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
Not surprisingly the GFS ENSEMBLE is much further east which is usually the case in 90% of all East Coast winter storms involving the G FS and the GFS ENSEMBLE. It's just such a badly designed model when it comes to handling East Coast winter storms and hurricanes that the GFS ENSEMBLE is always going to be further east.

0Z CMC
Starting at day 5-- the evening of 3/25 the Canadian model that Italy shows a impressive system but one that features two areas of low pressure. One area of Low pressure is very close to the coast and the other area is further to the East or SE. Because the model has these 2 areas of LOW pressure it produces a lot more precipitation over the coastal and central Piedmont areas of VA NC MD NJ eastern PA NYC se NY and eastern New England. The model for bay dome has a large area of significant snow from Central North Carolina into central and Eastern Virginia including Richmond the Middle peninsula the Northern neck into central and Eastern Maryland including Washington and Baltimore ( ALL in a 4-8" band)
the lower Maryland Eastern shore gets crushed with a 12" + snowstorm as does all of Philly NJ NYC interior se NY state and most of central and Eastern New England except for the Cape Cod area.

0z BR (UKMET) is also further east.... By the evening of 3/25 the Low southeast of pattern is situated on the 75° west Long line ay 998mb. From there the LOW tracks Northeast passing se of the Benchmark at 972 mb. In other words the British model th develops a monster coastal storm but one which appears to be out the far to the east to bring a major late season snowstorm to any portion of the East Coast except perhaps for Cape Cod and down east Maine.

0Z ECMWF
Also shifts to the east considerably with the area of low pressure on the evening of 3/25 well off the Cape Hatteras Coast. The atmosphere over central NC and VA appears to be cold enough for snow and that is also the case over DEL and MD but the low appears to be too far off the coast for any heavy preceptin these areas. 24 hrs l;ater the Low drops from 1007mb to 963mb . but it is way out there to the east of Cape Cod by a few hundred miles. Taken verbatim only southeastern Massachusetts and far Eastern Long Island would see significant snow from this event

6z GFS
offers a very similar track to the 0z GFS. The LOW passes just to the south and east of Hatteras then returns a sharply north paralleling the Middle Atlantic Coast and then turning just to the south and east of te 40 degrees N Lat / 70 degree W Long Benchmark. If anything it is a Tad further to the east then the 0z GFS run and again all of the precipitation would be along the immediate coastal areas with all the heavy stuff still being off the coast to the east.

CMC ENSEMBLES--- not surprisingly the CMC ensembles do NOT have this wiered 2 Low structure. Instead it has one large area of low pressure which is a compromise between the two. It has impressive looking system that mostly stays out to sea but it does bring moderate precipitation into the coastal areas from NC and VA up into the big cities of the Northeast and up as far north as Boston.

0Z EURO ENSEMBLE....
Does not budge. It is almost identical to the last several runs and shows no *significant * change or shift in the track of the Low or the intensity. It does not show a shift with regard to snowfall amounts or which locationbs will get the snow and which areas will not. The consistency of the European ENSEMBLE is quite impressive and hard to ignore. On the evening of 3/25 the Low is due east of Elizabeth City by about 100 or 150 miles in a classic .. ideal position for a big coastal low to bring a major snowstorm to western and central NC central and eastern VA central and eastern MD DEL se PA and south NJ. The low level and Middle levels of the atmosphere are still quite cold and easily support a major snowstorm BUT .. the question is... What will conditions be like at the surface?? The LOW also " bombs out " dropping to 980 MB near nova Scotia by the evening of 3/26.

SUMMARY... Despite what was a clear shift to the east and all the model guidance except for the European ensemble (which also did sdhift a TAD east but not as Much) the threat for a late season significant East Coast is still there. Given that the that is still 45 days away is quite possible that the model data will shift back to the west began at some point.

The only other time this winter we have had a Gulf of Mexico or MILLER A Low was the February 12-13 event. For those EU that do not recall that is the system which dropped up to 20 inches of snow in the Virginia Piedmont and in the Roanoke area and to the west and northwest of Washington, DC.... But the actual Low was very close to the coast so that the precipitation went over to rain in eastern VA eastern MD and significant rain over NY NYC CT and southern New England. There were several model runs in the days leading up to the FEB 12 event which had the Low further off the coast and got NYC and New England snow weenies all sexually excited with the idea of a massive snowstorm... But that was not to be the case.

My point here is that a shift to the east on in the early morning model runs here on March 21 is not the kiss of death or in any way a decisive.

Let me emphasize that even if the model data shifts back the west as you get closer to the event and it does look as impressive as it did yesterday afternoon... we still have to worry about when the snow begins with respect to the time of day BECUASE of the strong March sun angle. As I said before if this was February 25 instead of March 25 I would be barking like the nastiest pit bull either seen. But it's not February 25 it's March 25 and we have to deal with that fact.

[Deleted]

*** ABOUT TUESDAY WED EVENT... STILL WAY EAST ...12Z MODEL STAYING EAST

but... a PERIOD of SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE DAY OVER EASTERN/ CENTRAL VA EASTERN MD ...DEL... NJ SOUTHEAST PA ..

The early Sunday Morning models -- the 0z runs -- and now the 12z Sunday Models have come in and they all show the same thing: The LOW forms too far east of the GA coast. As a result when the Low gets pulled NORTH it passes well to the southeast... east then northeast of Cape Hatteras NC. This keeps the vast majority of the impressive sorm well to the east of all of the Middle Atlantic and New England coasts.

That being said there may be a period of snow Tuesday over central/ eastern VA eastern half of MD DEL southeast PA and southern/ central NJ on Tuesday. It will NOT be a big deal and it may not stick to the roads.

This image show the Relative Humidity field from the Sunday 12z GFS. The dark GREEN show precip and the dark green with the Brown squiggly lines show heavy precip. AS you can see over far eastern NC eastern VA the chessy bay Lower MD eastern shore & DEL there COULD be a period of moderate snow ..PROVIDE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH.

the SECOND image shows the GFS snowfall.

ONE last note. This event ..is it.

After March 26 it is over. For all of the eastern third of the US and Most od the Midwest ... except for Northern Great Lakes and Northern Northern England. LOOK at the pattern. Not one time since Mid November did we ever have a pattern which feature a prolonged deep trough over the West coast and Ridge over the Lower Midwest and East coast

Dead . Done . Buried. Over. Kaput.

“This WINTER is no more. It has ceased to be. It's expired and gone to meet its maker. This is a dead winter. It's a stiff. Bereft of life, it rests in peace. If you hadn't nailed it to the Polar vortex it would be pushing up the daisies. It's rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. This is an ex-winter.”